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Tuesday, August 29, 2006
SPL
:
Labour PMs more successful than Tory PMs?
In a recent article in the BBC History magazine, historian Francis Beckett attempts to rank twentieth-century British prime ministers in order of "how well the leaders implemented their policies – not on the policies themselves" (link: BBC website). Ranking prime ministers is not a new concept. Probably the most famous list was compiled by Peter Hennessy, author of the definitive The Prime Minister: The Office and its Holders Since 1945 (review here). In contrast to Hennessy, Beckett employs a points system ranging from 0-5, although the end result is similar. He concludes: GREATEST PRIME MINISTERS 5: Margaret Thatcher 5: Clement Attlee 4: Edward Heath 4: Winston Churchill 4: Harold Macmillan 4: Sir Henry Campbell-Bannerman 3: Robert Arthur Talbot Gascoyne-Cecil 3: Herbert Henry Asquith 3: David Lloyd George 3: Stanley Baldwin 3: James Harold Wilson 3: Tony Blair 2: James Callaghan 2: Arthur James Balfour 1: Andrew Bonar Law 1: James Ramsay MacDonald 1: Sir Alec Douglas-Home 1: John Major 0: Robert Anthony Eden 0: Neville Chamberlain Most of this is pretty uncontroversial, although I doubt that Ted Heath deserves a 4. On the Hennessy scale, there were four tiers: Atlee and Thatcher came top; then Heath and Blair; then Churchill and Callaghan; then Wilson and Macmillan. Like The Economist, I'd be inclined to promote the latter two:
Perhaps more arguable is the fourth-tier position allotted to Harold Wilson and Harold Macmillan on the grounds of high promise unfulfilled. Both, at least, had promise worth fulfilling. Macmillan raised his party and to some extent the country from despair, and did the job in some style. Electorally, 1960s Britain seemed set in a Conservative mould. So Wilson’s re-establishment of the Labour Party as a party of government, and the significant changes in the machinery of government during his first and second administration deserve some mark-up. Both Wilson and Macmillan faced intractable problems of economic decline compounded by additional individual afflictions—in Macmillan’s case, his prostate disease and in Wilson’s, the left wing of the Labour Party. Both are easy prey for the quotation-makers. “Harold”, one of Wilson’s own officials at Number Ten is quoted as saying, “wanted to be a combination of the head of MI5 and news editor of the Daily Mirror.” Nonetheless, he and Macmillan were the most intellectually accomplished of the post-war premiers and the best parliamentary performers, and some might dispute their demotion below Heath and Callaghan.
Minor disputes aside, what interesting party-political conclusions may be drawn from the above lists? On Hennessy's scale, the parties are equal - both Labour and Conservative occupy every tier. In contrast, Beckett's scale gives an average of 2.3 points for Tory PMs and 2.8 points for Labour PMs. Can we conclude from this that Labour PMs have been more successful than Tories at implementing their policies over the twentieth century, especially given that they have had less time in office? Cautiously, yes. The Tory score is skewed by PMs who, given their incompetence, were quickly booted out by their own party (Law, Home, Eden, Chamberlain). Nevertheless, the conclusion holds: Labour PMs have, in general, been more successful than their Tory counterparts.
Monday, August 28, 2006
SPL
:
Blair more unpopular than Thatcher?
Recent opinion polls apparently report that Blair is now more unpopular than Thatcher was at the height of the poll-tax riots, the BBC reports. Mori says: 23% of the public is satisfied with the way Tony Blair is doing his job as Prime Minister and 67%dissatisfied — giving a "net satisfaction" rating of -44. This means that for the first time, the proportion of the public satisfied with the Prime Minister is exactly the same as expressing satisfaction with the way the government is running the country (23%) — typically we find the Prime Minister (of any party) outscoring their government's approval rating. Also for the first time during his premiership, we find fewer than half (49%) of Labour supporters satisfied with Tony Blair's performance — though this is still more than the 40% who say they are dissatisfied.
How significant are these findings? Unfortunately I can't find any comparable statistics from 1990. But what I do want to draw attention to is the limitations of polling. Pollsters ask whether one is "satisfied" or "dissatisfied" with a person or party - hardly an accurate guide to the public's sentiments. I suspect, for instance, that the dissatisfaction felt towards Thatcher verged in many cases close to hate; in Blair's case, the problem is one of boredom, and, possibly, mild antipathy. Earlier this month I predicted that Blair's role as statesman during the Lebanon criris would bolster his ratings, regardless of the fact that the policies he was advocating were unpopular. The Mori poll was done before then, but in more recent surveys my prediction hasn't been at all obvious. On the contrary: Beckett is facing defections by party activists in her local consituency. I'm wary about trusting polls. I'm a member of the YouGov panel (once you've "earned" £50 you can cash it in), and the temptation to click on answers randomly without fully reading the question is too strong. This isn't a problem for telephone polling, but other difficulties exist for that medium too.
Another interesting aspect of Mori's polling is Cameron's personal approval ratings. Says Mori: While David Cameron will be pleased that his party retains a four point voting intentions lead over Labour among the 54% of the public who say they are absolutely certain to vote in a general election, the latest data shows slightly more of the public is dissatisfied (31%) than satisfied (29%)with the way he is handling his job as Leader of the Conservative Party. These new findings are in line with a gradual increase in dissatisfaction with the leader's performance measured each month by Ipsos MORI, and to some extent reflects the pattern of approval ratings experienced by previous Conservative party leaders since 1997.
The honeymoon is over. As Nick Robinson says in his first post for a while, this autumn's conference season will certainly be an action-packed one.
Saturday, August 26, 2006
SPL
:
Built to Last: Revolutionary Conservatism?
I have finally got round to reading Cameron's new "Built to Last" document, which, if so desired, may be read here.  As one would expect from Cameron's loose rhetoric since he was elected last December, there's nothing particularly remarkable about this text, save the fact that Cameron has bettered his own paradox of "compassionate conservatism". He's now saying that "this country needs a responsibility revolution".
What could this possibly mean? Surely conservatism is premised on a will to conserve? Revolution is anathema to any conservative worth the name, and has been since Reflections on the Revolution in France.
And just in case we missed it, Cameron repeats the word four times in the subsequent four paragraphs: A revolution in personal responsibility – giving every individual the skills, the resources, and the confidence to take control of their life. A revolution in professional responsibility – giving all those whowork in our public services the freedom to fulfil their vocation. A revolution in civic responsibility – giving our neighbourhoods and communities the power to shape their destinies, fight crime and improve the quality of life. A revolution in corporate responsibility – giving business the encouragement and the incentive to help enhance our environment and improve well-being. That is the mission of the modern Conservative Party: a responsibility revolution to create an opportunity society – a society in which everybody is a somebody, a doer not a done-for.
 One further thing jumped out at me before I buckled under the philosophic weight of "the aims and values of the Conservative Party". Cameron, as pictured above, is talking a lot about social justice. He says: To fight social injustice and help the most disadvantaged by building a strong society. The test of a strong and just society is how it looks after the least advantaged – but this duty is not reserved for the state alone. It is a shared responsibility: we are all in this together.
This is further evidence of political euphemism. This time the subject is not immigration, but collectivism. Talk of "shared responsibility", and a notion of us all being "in this together", belongs very much to the language of socialism. A week ago I wrote that "Cameron accuses the government of 'ineffective authoritarianism'. Perhaps he thinks he's the one to provide effective authoritarianism." With this document, Dave has tumbled yet further down the slippery slope of conservative-paternalism, typified in June by his infamous "rapping sanction".
Ben
:
Election Economics
Has Tony Blair's lust for power cost the Labour Party dear? Here's the cost of his last election win:
Paying for your wife's personal hairdresser Cost:£7700
Crippling the Party with debt Cost:£28million
Keeping up with loan repayments Cost: One HQ in Old Queen St. and possible job cuts
Maintaining your grip on power? PRICELESS
Friday, August 25, 2006
CJP
:
Racism in Literature
Literary criticism is dull. It is perhaps even duller than some of the books that it analyses, reviews and generally judges as being worth an extensive critique. It may even be duller than the following essay. So when, in 1975, Chinua Achebe actually managed to engender something approximating a sensation by delivering a lecture entitled ‘An Image of Africa: Racism in Conrad's Heart of Darkness’ at the University of Massachusetts, the usually tedious topic of literary criticism managed to gain, albeit transiently, some much-appreciated contentiousness and ebullience. In addition to the question of whether Conrad’s novella is racist or not, Achebe’s lecture also led to the more significant issue of what might vaguely be designated the ‘moral responsibility’ of literature: if there are racist elements in a novel, poem or play, does it attenuate the work’s status as ‘art’? Such a problem seems to be an ironic reversal of the much-mocked Leavisite critical stance. Dr Leavis held that literature has the power to reform the innately flawed human personality – it should, if we allow it to, make us ‘better people’. For Achebe, conversely, the literary work (‘Heart of Darkness’) is itself deficient and, by implication, perhaps has the power to corrupt – to make us ‘worse people’. This latter corollary appears to me exceptionally unlikely: the thought of white supremacists carrying a baseball bat in one hand and Conrad in the other seems absurd.
Unfortunately the previous paragraph somewhat unjustly treats Achebe’s criticisms in the same manner that Leavis’s usually are, ignoring the role of the most significant person involved in literary production – the reader; it is he who creates meaning. Without the reader the novel, poem or play is reduced to mere ink symbols on some sheets of paper. Hence, if a reader possesses a particular ideology his interpretation of the work will be always-already distorted: an especially ingenious reader could find support for the oppression of a race on a bus timetable (or an inattentive one might accuse me of facetiousness), so any work that is as elusive as Conrad’s could easily be misappropriated. Fortunately in this instance it was by someone unequivocally opposed to racism. Furthermore, supposed authorial intentions cannot make a literary work racist, sexist, anti-Semitic or anything else because any such intentions are unattainable: they require words to express, and those words similarly require further words fully to comprehend their meaning, and this process continues ceaselessly. The writer’s intentions are forever just out of reach. Those conceived by the reader, however, are not (at least to the reader himself).
Thus, I do not believe that a literary work can be considered inherently racist, since it is the reader who constructs this, or any other –ism, within the novel, poem or play merely by interpreting it. So, ‘Heart of Darkness’ is not racist simply because it cannot be; it is only in reading that it becomes anything. And if this is true, then the artistic qualities of the work remain unadulterated.
[Please excuse the lack of political saliency of this essay; my outmoded political views, if expressed, would only embarrass the enlightened purveyors of this blog]
Thursday, August 24, 2006
SPL
:
Racist to impose limits on immigration?
A multitude of politicians are now re-iterating the same worn phrase, just as John Reid's clumsy proclamation that the Home Office is "not fit for purpose" has become a part of the political lexicon. "It's not racist to impose limits on immigration", argued Michael Howard last year, and he unveiled large billboards as if to prove it.  Michael Howard's campaign was a disaster. But why? Surely he was stating a truism, in the same vein as Israel's "right to exist"? Yes - but as with much of politics, image counts more than substance. Howard seemed reactionary, despite the truism; Conservatism was thus rejected. So is there a parallel between Howard's mistake in 2005 - to focus (unduly) on immigration - and Labour's bashing of (their own) "open door" policy? There are certainly some similarities. Shaken by the nine-point gap between themselves and the Tories, it is indeed Labour who are fuelling anti-immigrant hysteria, egged on by tabloid populism. First of all, the influential backbenchers (and former ministers), John Denham and Frank Field, came out in favour of regulation (particularly with regard to Romania and Hungary, from next year), citing pressure on public services as their main concern. Then a series of cabinet ministers expressed their agreement. Alistair Darling, John Reid, Ruth Kelly and John Hutton have all called for limits to be put on Romanian and Hungarian migration from next year. As this Guardian article points out, there is some disagreement within government, with the Foreign Office supporting the "open door" policy in principle, but a weakened Beckett, and an absence of voices other than Denis MacShane's, has led to victory for the anti-immigration lobby. There are differences, of course. Although Labour ministers' reactions smack of knee-jerkism, they are premised on facts which have recently come to light. We are now told that 600,000 eastern Europeans have immigrated here since these countries' accession to the EU in 2004. The UK's population has consequently topped 60 million. According to a Mori poll for the Sunday Times, 75% of us apparently want immigration policy to be "toughened", though there is little elaboration on what this might actually mean in practice. There is a contradiction, though, between such polling and how the electorate actually votes: the economy is invariably more salient an issue, and immigration invariably increases general wealth. Minette Marrin in The Times writes: Of course immigrants are good for a society, up to a point. New Labour has offered no serious consideration of that point. Nor has it demonstrated that an open door is good for the economy; the real argument is the other way. What we need is rational and controlled immigration; until we have rational and controlled politicians and civil servants, we are hardly likely to get it.
This artificial distinction between "controlled" and "uncontrolled" immigration is commonly made, but is deceiving. To talk of "floods" and "waves" of immigrants is hyperbolic, and the word "uncontrolled" falls into the same trap. An "open door" system is controlled - but it is controlled by market forces and individual choice, not protectionism and a "Whitehall knows best mentality", as typified by John Reid's proposal: Mr Reid is considering setting-up a Migration Advisory Committee, though the idea is still in its infancy. The panel of experts, headed by business leaders, would assess the skills shortages in the UK to work out how many migrant workers are needed. It would then set an 'optimum' level of migration which is 'beneficial in terms of enhancing the economy of this country commensurate with our social stability'.
This article is not meant as a defence of immigration per se - my thoughts on this subject are outlined in brief here - but rather as an attack on the misleading language which pervades debate on immigration, saturated as it is with all those liquid metaphors. Talk of "racism" is beside the point. But talk of protectionism, provincialism and conservatism is certainly not.
Tuesday, August 22, 2006
Debate-it
:
Inheritance Tax is a Good Thing
Yesterday's Mail carried a full page article by Stephen Glover entitled "So why won't the Tories promise to cut this nasty tax [inheritance]". The main arguments of the article were that:
The current inheritance tax threshold is far too low, as asset inflation (i.e. mainly pullled by house price inflation) has risen much faster than the threshold Middle England would be hit hard, but more importantly many members of the lower middle or even working classes would be hit because the tax is a "tax which the very rich are much more likely to be able to avoid through careful tax planning and the setting up of trusts" Stephen Buyers has "aimed a grenade" at Gordon Brown and it is obvious that the chancellor needs to show the kind of leadership through change that will win him the premiership The £3.6 billion tax is not vital to the Treasury, seeing as £2.5 billion was spent on management consultants When Mrs Thatcher replaced Capital Transfer Tax with inheritance tax, it was only something for the rich to worry about then, so Mr Cameron is wrong in believing following her is the right course of action Perhaps the most cynical observation of this article is that the underlying reason for scrapping the tax is that of political popularity.
Firstly, I need to put forward a little theory. Tax could be split up into tax on labour and tax on business (similar to taxing capital etc). Taxing businesses or capital will harm an economy, as companies and capital tends to gravitate to lower tax areas and higher growth potential areas. This is because business and capital is far more mobile than labour (with the exception of East to West migration, the movement of labour between developed nations is almost non-existent).
So, the Treasury is short of cash and needs to maintain budget promises. Aggregate demand will fall if government spending falls, such is the extent of the government as a component in it. Consumer spending will fall if labour is directly taxed, and if businesses are taxed then they may leave the country, spiralling the economy into higher unemployment and yet more falling tax revenues coupled with higher social security payments. There is a sensible tax that has no immediate repercussions. Inheritance tax will not cause businesses or capital to "fly" away from the economy as it is effectively a labour tax, and as labour is relatively immobile, people will still tend to stay in the country. The problem of lower consumer spending will not be an issue, as disposable income is completely unaffected; inheritances occur so infrequently that a financial life is rarely planned around an expected windfall.
Furthermore, inheritance tax is far below the radar of most people at election times, taking away Mr Glover's political popularity theory. Why would Middle England be so hard hit? People manage perfectly well working through their lives without relying on a parental handout when they reach their 50s or 60s. I could argue the extreme that too much inheritance may lead to higher levels of demand pull inflation, which would be economically harmful, but I doubt that this would ever be an issue.
So what if the government spent money on management consultants? They do perform a service, and constitute less red tape than many would think. Projects cannot be completed without leadership, and with the scale of the NHS and similar bodies, headless organisation is surely going to end in disaster.
I disagree with the so-called ability of the rich to out-manoeuvre the poor where financial planning is concerned. The working classes aren't stupid, and are perfectly able to sign away houses to children more than 7 years before their death. Solicitors are not too expensive when preparing your estate; with housing ownership transfers they may not be entirely necessary for much of the process either.
Inheritance tax is a way for the government to take in much needed cash (and yes it is needed, despite what Mr Glover may claim) without harming the economy in any way. It is prudent, so to speak.
Lib_, Britain_, Economics_, ...
Friday, August 18, 2006
SPL
:
Democracy without elections?
Here is a copy of an essay I wrote today, with the title:
So can we have a democracy without elections? Should we make elections the mostimportant part of our democracy? If so, how?
Democracy is the greatest “hurrah” word of the post-WWII epoch. Despite – or perhaps because of – this, “democracy” has a loose, almost indefinable resonance. Hitler described the Third Reich as “the true democracy”; one of the most brutal countries of modern times, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, claims eponymous democracy. The word itself derives from Ancient Greek, and may be condensed into the phrase “rule by the people”. The question of how “the people” could fairly and collectively articulate and enact their desires has perplexed a multitude of philosophers; most notably Rousseau, whose “social contract” was premised on mass participation and perpetual referenda so as to affirm the “general will”. Although thinkers since Rousseau have tended to favour representative government, the conventional wisdom that the act of voting is a precondition of democracy has been maintained. This thinking is fallacious: elections are no guarantee of democracy, and democracy is possible without the supremacy of the ballot box.
Voter turnout is in sharp decline, particularly among the traditional western democracies. The past two general elections in the UK have seen turnout at both sides of the symbolic 60% mark, and psephological signs suggest that this is endemic. In 2005, turnout among 18-24 year olds was a mere 37%. Although voting is anathema to the younger generation, democracy is by no means dead. On the contrary, popular protest is in the ascendant: the Make Poverty History campaign, particularly popular with young people, clearly influenced government policy and encouraged Tony Blair to pursue the issue at 2005's G8 summit. Membership numbers of cause groups are soaring because Britons recognise that these organisations provide a direct and democratic means of influencing change. On the other hand, an increasingly affluent and educated populace has come to realise that political parties are too general in scope; in consequence, their membership figures are in terminal decline. For a system that relies so heavily on the strength of political parties, it is unsustainable that a mere 1% of the electorate are party members. A more fundamental threat to the cycle of authority which underpins representative government also exists: that of the democratic deficit. Under Britain's system of first-past-the-post, Labour (for example) enjoyed a 63% majority in the House of Commons with 43% of the vote in 1997; the Liberal Democrats, meanwhile, won 17% of the vote but held only 7% of the seats. Alternative elective systems provide little comfort: proportional representation in Italy, for instance, has caused tremendous political and, ultimately, economic deadlock.
It may be argued that the upsurge in the popularity of cause-based pressure groups is limited to the section of the electorate that is already politicised. Indeed, a report by Essex University for the Electoral Commission revealed that there is statistically significant data to suggest that voters are more likely to participate in a protest, be active in a voluntary organisation or discuss political issues with friends than are non-voters. In rebuttal, it should be said that the activities surveyed by Essex University are, in the main, manifestations of the orthodox electoral process. The real question is whether the disenfranchised are able to find alternative methods of democratic participation which transcend conventional politics, of which voting and popular protest are indicative. The answer, it seems, is in the affirmative. Non-voters may contribute to the fabric of society via a multiplicity of avenues, many of which are not considered overtly “political”. The principal means of participation is economic: in a free market, consumers' activities create democratic results, as capital follows choice. The allocation of capital is unequal, which runs anathema to the principle of “one member one vote”, but nowhere does democracy imply egalitarianism, although it does require meritocracy. Consequently, it may be said that certain institutional prerequisites, particularly a collective guarantee of individual autonomy and the rule of law, supersede elections in terms of democratic importance. Moreover, a culture which fosters free expression and exchange of ideas is vital to the health of any democracy; a fact evidenced most pointedly in the Middle East, where, despite the prevalence of elections – notably in Iraq – religious protectionism, as well as a sore lacking of guaranteed security, precludes the development of true democracy. In fact, an over-emphasis on elections endangers democracy, as legislatures assume a collective legitimacy with which they may impede on the liberty of the individual. In the words of JS Mill, “whatever crushes individuality is despotism”, no matter what the form of government. While conventional politics is in decline, a general increase in wealth, security and autonomy facilitates greater participation. “Democracy” is invariably used with regard to the election of a legislature and government, but in fact the word demands more scope. Indeed, by undergoing voluntary transactions in the marketplace, consumers contribute to the democratic make-up of their country: popular products and services are given precedence and unpopular goods sidelined. This truly is “rule by the people”, in a far more direct and effective way than representative government could ever hope to achieve. Evidence from around the world supports this conclusion. Thailand, for instance, has been without a parliament for most of 2006, but the country is no less democratic because of it – GDP growth this year is expected to surpass last year's, thus enabling consumers to better implement their democratic rights of choice and decision. We should not, as the question suggests, “make elections the most important part of our democracy”, because this runs contrary to the spirit of the word: by definition, it would be undemocratic to force elections onto a populace. As is evidenced by the general elections of 2001 and 2005, 40% of the UK electorate has exercised its democratic choice in not participating in the outdated process of representative government. Democracy is defined as “rule by the people”, yet the current government is mandated by a quarter of the total electorate, which undermines governmental legitimacy and authority in general. As such, it is a political reality that elections are in decline vis a vis the democratic system. Politicians generally emphasise the importance of “re-engaging” people with – and “re-educating” them about – the conventional political system, but that is because their vested interests lie in preserving the status quo. The Power Inquiry's proposal for a “a rebalancing of power away from the executive and unaccountable bodies towards Parliament and local government” correctly addresses the issue of undemocratic centralisation (caused, in fact, by the aforementioned electoral system of first-past-the-post), but a more fundamental problem remains. Throughout modern history there has been in existence a self-aggrandising system of government whereby the people, persuaded by illusions of grandeur, elect their chosen representative, who thus contrives the myth of a “social contract” in order to perpetuate his power and the stability of the political system in which he operates. In a democracy, it is the people who are sovereign; not their temporary representatives. In JS Mill's time, “the majority [had] not yet learnt to feel the power of the government their power, or its opinions their opinions”. Today's majority is learning how to wield its rightful power, and the weapon used against established political elites is not the ballot box, which is naturally conservative, but capital. This tension was identified in 1973 by Habermas as the “crisis of legitimation”, and it is a conflict which, inevitably, the individual will win; for the alternative is, as JS Mill said, “a state which dwarfs its men”, and “with small men no great thing can really be accomplished”.
Wednesday, August 16, 2006
SPL
:
Newsflash: Cameron speaks
As James Landale reports, Cameron has come back from holiday and made a speech, which you can see here, on the recent concerns over Islamist extremism. It seems he's come up with a few "policies", too: it seems he's sticking with his pledge to replace the HRA with a bill of rights, despite the criticism he received when the policy was first proposed back at the end of June he's calling for a dedicated minister to "pull together" counter-terrorism efforts as well as a "dedicated border police force" - perhaps forgetting that most of the 20-odd people arrested recently were home-grown Britons he's calling for more "preachers of hate" to be expelled from Britain vaguely, he says: "why has so little been done to minimise the impact of imams who come to Britain and preach, often with little knowledge or appreciation of British values" he's proposing a "national school leaver programme" Martha Kearney picked up on an interesting point, which is that Cameron throughout his speech referred to a "struggle against terrorism" rather than a "war on terrorism". He clearly realises that adopting the Bush lexicon would be a political landmine, even if many of his fellow Conservatives would be comfortable with it.
What can we conclude? Cameron is, indeed, an "heir to Blair". He's making policy on the hoof (just like Blair) in response to events, without due consideration to the implications of his proposals. Also, many of the policies really do sound like a Conservative slant on New Labour - what exactly does he mean by a "national school leaver programme"? Cameron's rhetoric is reactionary, gimmicky and dangerous. Cameron accuses the government of "ineffective authoritarianism". Perhaps he thinks he's the one to provide effective authoritarianism.
SPL
:
Max Hastings on Bush-Blair folly
I don't often agree with the military historian Max Hastings, but there's an interesting article by him on the Guardian's excellent comment is free website. In it, he deftly expresses my opinion on the current debate over Islamic terrorism: We know that we face a real threat from Muslim fundamentalists, and that we are unlikely to begin to defeat this until we see it for what it is: something infinitely more complex, diffuse and nuanced than the US president wishes to suppose.
The US is clearly oversimplifying the threat of Islamic terrorism, by calling it a "third world war" (Newt Gingrich) and referring to "Islamic fascism" (George Bush). What's truly saddening is that it has been seen so many times throughout history - the obvious example being Vietnam, when the US administration (particularly the Pentagon) consistently failed to distinguish between communists and the nationalist/anti-Diem movement. The same may be said of the difficulty (for Israel in particular) in separating Palestinian nationalists from international jihadists.
What's frustrating is that criticism of the neoconservative strategy is often construed as "appeasement". Max Hastings deals with this fabrication well:
Whatever the truth about last week's frustrated aircraft bomb plot, we cannot doubt that Britain faces a serious and ongoing threat from violent fanatics undeserving of the smallest sympathy. Yet we shall defeat them only when our Muslim community at large perceives that its interests are identified with Britain's polity... As a citizen, I am willing to be resolute in the face of terrorism, which must be defeated. I become much less happy about the prospect of immolation, however, when Bush and Blair translate what should be an ironclad case for civilised values into an agenda of their own which I want no part of.
Monday, August 14, 2006
SPL
:
A not-so-ethical Ethical Man?
Newsnight has really got with the times. In spite of Jeremy Paxman's scepticism, it has free-to-download weekly audio and video podcasts, which often come in iTunes' top 10. The editor, Peter Barron, regularly contributes to his online blog, which is also available via email. More recently, Newsnight has launched a collective blog, which pulls together contributions from a variety of presenters (though so far limited to Paul Mason, Martha Kearney and Justin Rowlatt). The programme is avant-garde in more ways than one. It has frustrated some "traditional" Newsnight watchers by juxtaposing serious reporting with more frivolous items - such as a quirky 1960s tourist video of Lebanon, driving a car clad in St George's flags in a rough part of Scotland, and, as mentioned before, the ethical man series. Newsnight's willingness to embrace the broadband revolution has obvious democratising results - ensuring a closer connection between the producers of television and the consumers of it. I haven't always been convinced by this argument, but after making the following comment in response to a post by Justin Rowlatt... I enjoy the Ethical Man programmes - they are suitably light-hearted while addressing serious issues. One question, Justin - you apparently gave up your car as part of ethical living, but according to this report, you drove to the green festival. Something smells fishy - and not just your compost heap.
the Ethical Man himself promptly responded with a post dedicated to the subject of "ethical driving". He replied to my observation directly: I've made quite a do about giving up my car for the project and yet as SPL noticed I said in my report on the Big Green Gathering that I drove to the festival. As SPL says "something smells fishy - and not just your compost heap." So here's the mea culpa. We did indeed drive to the festival. The Big Green Gathering is scattered across some fields in the soft Somerset hills and is a good few miles from the nearest town. The event lays on buses from the station but with two toddlers and a two month old baby we can’t travel light. Bee and I reckoned we were justified in hiring a car. My first thought was to get a hybrid car. Wouldn’t this be the ideal opportunity to test one out? The problem is the only hybrid that might pack us all in is a Toyota Lexus. It is an SUV but uses hybrid technology. In fact, it’s the car that David Cameron uses. It had to be the most ethical option, surely. I couldn’t find a rental company that stocks the Lexus so I decide to try Toyota themselves. But when I called they didn't seem keen to help me get back behind the wheel. “You’d be better off with the diesel Aventis Estate”, Alan in the press office tells me, “it will give you up to 45 miles to the gallon on long journeys. The Lexus is based on a 3.3 litre V6 engine,” he explains, “You might get as much as 30 miles to the gallon in town but if you are driving on motorways a diesel would be better.” For all warm words we hear about hybrid technology it clearly has its limitations – certainly when it’s used in a big four wheel drive SUV, as Toyota seem to acknowledge. Instead we hired a roomy, cheap and fuel efficient 1.6 litre Vauxhall instead. Meanwhile my car is still gathering dust in a car park. I don't think I am cheating on the project. When I gave up the car I said the idea was to see how the family got on without one. We said we would look at what alternatives to car ownership there are and hiring a car is one of them. Of course, if you think I am being an a*****e feel free to use the box below to tell me and - yes - the BBC will publish your reply (so long as it is not too obscene).
Actually, I think it's very ethical indeed for Justin to respond so candidly. As I said in my comment on the Newsnight website, I enjoy the dry wit of the "ethical" series. Keep it up, Justin - Lexus or no Lexus.
SPL
:
The Revenge of Gaia
Climate change has become a remarkably salient issue in the past year. Blair has described it as the single biggest problem facing mankind. Cameron has jumped on the environmental bandwagon - "vote blue; go green", we were told. Even California's Schwarzenegger has gone over the head of Bush and struck a deal with Blair over global warming. The green political movement is by no means homogenous, however. The so-called "skeptical environmentalist", Bjorn Lomborg, has outraged his fellow greenies by suggesting that governments should take a utilitarian approach: measures to alleviate poverty, he says, are far more important than often ineffective attempts to limit carbon emissions. The respected scientist James Lovelock takes a more extreme view. In his book The Revenge of Gaia (an extract of which is available here), Lovelock argues that we have now crossed the Rubicon; climate change has become a matter of damage limitation. This article will assess Lovelock's arguments, taking into account the following reviews: As the developer of the controversial but respected so-called “Gaia theory” of the global ecological system, James Lovelock enjoys widespread praise in all of the above reviews for his various scientific achievements. It is in this context that the above reviewers assess what is indeed a piercing book; one that challenges our innate preconceptions of safety and of the near-invincibility of Earth. The book is forthright; according to Robin McKie, it is “gloomy to the point of near suicide”. When James Lovelock first developed his Gaia theory in the 1960s and ‘70s, he was of the opinion that the self-correcting mechanisms inherent within planet Earth were sufficient to re-balance humans’ ecological impact, particularly in the last few centuries, since the industrial revolution. Gaia is “the sum of all … mutually dependent networks”: a sort of collectivised Darwinism, inspired by the notion that species evolve interdependently with other species and the planet; thus evolution as a concept may only be accurate if the Earth is considered as an inseparable whole (hence, Gaia, or “Mother Earth”), rather than as a collection of individual animals. The implication of James Lovelock’s new book, therefore, is that, as Robin McKie notes, “Our planet will burn like a crisp and, along with it, civilisation”. Richard Mabey in The Sunday Times also notes that “If Gaia means the interdependence of all organisms on Earth, then its breakdown implicates all organisms, though it is our fault, exclusively”.
A distinct difficulty, which has encumbered all of the above reviewers, is James Lovelock’s confusing blend of science with quasi-religious undertones. Richard Mabey is perplexed by the undertones of James Lovelock’s book, which “reads at times like the Book of Revelation”. The Observer article notes that James Lovelock’s book represents “science meets the Book of Isaiah”. Moreover, James Lovelock’s personification of the Earth, via his ubiquitous Gaia creation, prevents some reviewers, notably Michael Hanlon in The Daily Mail, from accessing the true science behind The Revenge of Gaia. Michael Hanlon’s reaction is understandable: as James Flint characterises it, “Gaia is growing weak, and old. And increasingly unhappy”. Michael Hanlon dismisses The Revenge of Gaia as sounding “like the plot of one of those lurid 1970s sci-fi movies in which the world ends in an onslaught of plagues, nuclear war or apes”. The explanation for such a reaction to the book may be found in Richard Mabey’s intelligent review in The Sunday Times, for he notes that while James Lovelock “is a scientist of brilliant prescience, he is not such a good psychologist”, for The Revenge of Gaia is “disablingly depressing” and the “Spartan argument may not push the right buttons”. Richard Mabey’s respectful review of The Revenge of Gaia is, however, somewhat more optimistic about the Earth’s future than is James Lovelock himself: for with “common consensus”, and “something truer to our organic origins and our present psychologies”, human society “might just turn things around”.
James Flint notes that James Lovelock's musings makes us feel as if “we’re powerless to stop it”. However, James Flint contends that James Lovelock is misguided in his negative approach to such efforts as wind power, organic farming and simple, domestic conservation of energy, as is personified in Newsnight’s “Ethical Man” feature. James Flint thus implicitly rejects James Lovelock’s adopted policy of “sustainable retreat”, for he argues that if environmental policies are derided to such a drastic extent, then the public may lose any remotely green motivation it may have acquired in the global warming media frenzy that has ensued in the past year. There is a haunting reverberation in James Flint’s last lines, challenging the reader to “make that call”, reject James Lovelock’s thesis, and thus gamble “the future of the planet”. Michael Hanlon is clearly ready for such a challenge himself, contending powerfully that “the global warming brigade” ignores “the contradictions, the nuances and uncertainties of climate science and always plump for the absolute, we’re-all-going-to-die scenario”. Michael Hanlon’s scientific basis for such assertions is that for much of the Earth’s history, our planet “was several degrees warmer than it is now”. James Lovelock and Michael Hanlon agree on one point, however: “bring on nuclear power”, they say. According to Mark Lynas in The New Statesman, James Lovelock is a keen nuclear power advocate because he sees it as the only way in which to ensure “secure and relatively safe electricity” in order to facilitate the electrical lifestyle central to modern life.
The green argument in general, and James Lovelock’s in particular, is compelling, despite the scepticism of Michael Hanlon and others. Mark Lynas writes in The New Statesman that “atmospheric greenhouse-gas levels are far higher than at any other time in the past thirty million years”. Such an assertion is not scientific fact, but its re-iteration may cause governments to pay heed; that is surely what James Lovelock and others in the green movement are striving towards. The danger for the green movement is that the perpetual use of hyperbole may backfire, once the public realises that, while we may indeed be “ecological sinners”, the world is not “fighting back” and humanity not “about to get the elbow”. James Lovelock, it seems, may not be credited with effective use of the metaphor. However, he does recognise that, for instance, “Kyoto … was a mere act of appeasement to polluters”. James Lovelock, along with the green movement, is faced with the quandary of trying to persuade reluctant governments to act against the powerful business lobby which would loathe to see “green taxes” and increased regulations on emissions. James Lovelock is not indicative of greens in general, however – his support for nuclear power solidifies this fact – and, as Mark Lynas says, “Perhaps his book should carry a special label: ‘Warning – for those with open minds only. Do not read if you cannot be persuaded’”. (You can read a recent interview with James Lovelock in The Sunday Times here.)
Saturday, August 12, 2006
Debate-it
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A survey: Germany's economic recovery
In The Economist of August 20th 2005, the cover article was entitled “Germany’s surprising economy”. The main arguments were that so long as the country avoided a “messy result in which [Merkel’s] party emerges as the biggest, but is forced into a grand coalition with the centre-left”, there could very well be an economic recovery for Germany’s (and therefore Europe’s) malaise. The article voiced several reasons to be cheerful: lower unemployment, a much lower cost base for Germany companies, successful negotiations with the unions, and the return to the top of the world’s largest exporters. But the nation was still sick, and since then several transformations have created a Germany much removed from that of one year ago. Over the course of this article I plan to discover the extent to which the German recovery has precipitated, and whether the converse may be true. Most economic facts and data are taken from the Economist’s “Pocket World in Figures 2006”, a fantastic tool for writing posts such as this. Government and PoliticsThe article outlined the need for Germany to avoid a messy coalition; in reality this is exactly what has occurred. The following excerpt highlights the sheer extent of the entangled politics of the 2005 federal election: “The election results of September 18, 2005 were surprising insofar as they differed widely from the polls of the previous weeks. The conservatives lost votes compared to 2002, reaching only 35%, and failed to get a majority for a 'black-yellow' government of CDU/CSU and liberal FDP. The FDP polled a stunning 10% of the votes, one of their best results ever. But the red-green coalition also failed to get a majority, with the SPD losing votes, but polling 34% and the greens staying at 8%. The left party alliance reached 8.7% and entered the German Parliament, whereas the NPD only got 1.6%. The most likely outcome of coalition talks was a so-called 'grand coalition' between the conservatives (CDU/CSU) and the social democrats (SPD), with the three smaller parties (liberals, greens and the left) in the opposition. Other possible coalitions include a 'traffic-light coalition' between SPD, FDP and Greens and a "Jamaica coalition" between CDU/CSU, FDP and Greens. Coalitions involving the Left Party have been ruled out by all parties (including the Left Party itself), although the combination of one of the major parties and any two small parties would mathematically have a majority. Of these combinations, only a red-red-green coalition is politically even imaginable. Both Gerhard Schröder and Angela Merkel announced that they have won the election and should become next chancellor. On October 10th talks were held between Franz Müntefering, the SPD chairman, Gerhard Schröder, Angela Merkel and Edmund Stoiber, the CSU chairman. In the afternoon it was announced that the CDU/CSU and SPD will begin formal coalition negotiations with the aim of a Grand Coalition with Angela Merkel as the next German chancellor. Angela Merkel is the first woman, the first East German and the first scientist to be chancellor as well as the youngest German chancellor ever. On November 22nd 2005 Angela Merkel was sworn in by president Horst Köhler for the office of Bundeskanzlerin.”So, there goes the conclusion of the Economist article, which ended with: “The story from Germany is about to become surprisingly good – so long as the politicians do not foul it up after next month’s election.” The last thing the republic needed was for Schroeder and Merkel to both declare victory; the legislative reforms required in Germany would need a strong, unified government. However, the news wasn’t all bad. Despite a crippled parliament in terms of legislative movement, Merkel appeared to be a boost to the German people, providing a much needed change: “In early 2006, polls showed that Angela Merkel, having been in office for only about 100 days, had the highest approval rate among Germans ever to be recorded for a chancellor since 1949. Many economic commentators have referred to the 'Merkel factor', which has apparently caused a rapid rise in consumer confidence and market spending.”
Yet by later on this early increase was all but gone: “However, Merkel's popularity has fallen since June 2006, when the sweeping health care reform that would lead to lower health insurance fees was scrapped, replaced with a compromise deal that led to higher fees. According to a poll taken by ARD in August, her party, the CDU, and Bavarian sister party CSU have a 31 percent approval rating. (Source.) ”
Whilst her popularity may be waning, the Germany political situation is certainly in better shape than last August; a new Chancellor is in, and hopefully new ideas should infiltrate the in-so-far resistant to change German politicians. Business Institutions German businesses, as mentioned in the article, are cutting their “bloated cost base” and becoming more profitable. They are exporting more than any other country in the world, and amazingly are exporting services worth nearly 300 million US dollars more (annually) than the UK, which is considered a strong invisible exporter. (However, Germany’s share of invisible exports in the world is still more than 3% lower than the UK at 7.14% - sourced from the Economist publication “Pocket World in Figures 2006”). Germany makes up 10.46% of world visible exports; put this into context when the EU only constitutes 16.34%, and you can see that the country is a relatively brilliant producer of goods. A flick through many backdated Economists from last August indicates that German industrial output is growing rapidly to feed the desire to export. This compares to a shrinking industrial sector in the UK, which is considered to be faring much better economically. Exports and the Domestic Market (including taxation)However, this reliance on exports and industrial production is an omen for less welcome economic symptoms: low levels of domestic demand, a reliance on exports (making Germany more susceptible to the current slowdown in the US economy, which is its second largest export market after France). German companies are choosing to export because there is insufficient consumer spending at home, which is also a reason why Germany is running up record surpluses on its Balance of Payments. Compare this to the USA which is running an (unsustainable) deficit so high it would cripple any currency that isn’t the dollar. Sometimes a deficit is the result of a strong economy, and in this case I believe the converse is true for Germany. The lacklustre German domestic market is accentuated by data from past Economist issues – consumer retail volumes are 0.4% lower as of June of this year, compared to a promisingly rosy 1.9% increase as of June of last year. On this front, the weakest link of the German economy, domestic demand, is showing no signs of an upturn; on the contrary, matters have become significantly worse during the past year. Without trying to be too pessimistic, the increase this year in Germany industrial output could also be taken as further proof that German companies are producing more secondary goods with lower value added and ignoring services that could yield higher profits for the country, just for the sake of exporting to satisfy the US and EU markets. Being a member of the Euro also restricts almost all Germany can do to influence consumer spending, without resorting to taxation. Interest rates are entirely centralised to Brussels, and the sheer thought of lowering taxes (although the right option, the state of Germany’s public finances could little withstand a reduction in rates) is difficult for some in Germany to bear. I wrote the following taxation article earlier this year: Germany - Right or Wrong?Rumblings have been stirring in Germany, calling for the rest of Europe to "harmonise" taxes to a standard level across the EU. Whilst there may be some truths in their arguments for such a move, some (perhaps not so cynical) people have suggested that Europe's fallen giant has motives that go little beyond its own borders. Of all the benefits that tax harmonisation should (economically) bring to each member state, the glaring facts are that the tax burden in Germany is much higher than the EU average. Is Germany sulking that the Union's new members are reaping the rewards of very low coroprate tax rates (in terms of massive inflows of foreign investment due to the lower costs for business), whilst it reels against the outflow of capital to cheaper shores? Or is Germany truly attempting to benefit all members by eliminating a "race to the bottom" in tax rates, so allowing growth without each member trying to out-do the other?
Certainly, tax competition is harming the giant economy; with free trade and better telecomunications, locating your businesses in lower tax areas is much easier than it was in the past, whilst it is still generally regarded that Germany is a difficult place to do business. In Ireland (which happens to have upset Germany with low rates), the corporate tax is at 12.5%, a massive cut on the Germans' 38% (from 2004-2005), which is attracting capital and labour, as well as foreign companies, towards the green of the Irish and away from the efficient productivity of the Germans.
Germany argues that tax differences represents competitive advantages to companies in low tax states, which gives an economic inefficiency due to it being a barrier to trade. Germany is committed to a united Europe, and with each member trying to undercut the other on tax, distrust is created. At the current time, many businesses declare profits in countries with a lowest tax rate, which is a basic form of tax avoidance. With harmonised taxes across the board in Europe, we would have a stable platform for even investment throughout Europe. However, opposing states have fired back, in particular the UK, with arguments that are just as potent as the Germans': - Taxes are a factor of fiscal policy, and governments need this as their current last bastion of fiscal steerage.
- Different cultures in Europe have different tax regimes, for instance the Scandinavian states tend to have higher taxes by nature with high social spending. What would the impact on these nations' inflation be if all of a sudden their consumers have massive increases in disposable income?
- The "one size" debate - once again the argument that you cannot impose a standard fiscal policy on the whole of the Union, as each state is so different in structure, and business cycle stage of life.
- Production capacities - without leeway on taxes, it is difficult steer finance towards education and other supply side policies if Brussels constrains how and what you can tax It remains to be seen if Frau Merkel can rejuvinate the German economy without resorting to dragging the rest of Europe down with its high corporate tax. Although a race to the bottom may be undesirable, the Germans need to realise that they have a high tax economy, yet foreign investors do not see this as the only reason they steer clear of the Bavarians; Germany is hard to do business in, and the miles of red tape can only hinder injections into the country. When it comes to the crunch, Germany must want tax harmonisation for one reason only; it believes that it is the reason investors are turning their backs, and rather than compete on tax, they would like the rest of Europe to charge higher rates.
I have since learned that Germany plans to increase VAT rates, which would be crippling to any insipient recovery in domestic demand. Whilst my previous article focused on EU tax harmonisation, I was also trying to point out that German taxes are far too high, which is a severe constraint on the economy. In 1997, Japan, facing budget problems, increased taxes, which had a terrible effect, in turn slowing the economy and thus failing to solve the budget problems. I fear Germany hasn’t learned the lesson. Economic progress
German growth has risen since the August article: it currently stands at a predicted 2006 figure of 1.7% (compared to a 2006 prediction last year of 1.3%). However, growth in 2005 was at 0.9%, compared to an expected 1.1%. Two years ago, German unemployment was 10.6%, a year ago it stood at an increased 11.8%; now that figure is back to a healthier 10.6% (although the World Cup could have played no small part in this). The German stock market is nearly 1000 points higher at 5702.8, a 5% increase since Christmas. German inflation is at 1.9%, down from 2.0% last year; there is some scope for a slight increase out of the bounds of the EU’s deflationary-biased “below 2%” target. Although unwelcome, some inflation above 2% would show signs of a pick up in consumer confidence. German wages are growing at 1.1% annually, up from a low 0.6% last year. Whilst this may be good news, the wages still need to pick up significantly to avoid a drop in relative living standards in Germany and allow domestic demand to be revived; British wages are increasing annually at 4.1% by comparison. RecoveryAll of the information and data I have found point to a recovery in the German economy. For too long it has been the sick patient at the heart of the EU (representing as it does a third of Euro area GDP). Things are looking better for Germany, but more policies are still necessary to allow sufficient reform to take place. I haven’t mentioned policies such as the Hartz ideas from 2002, which I am sure are a huge part of Germany’s future. Have a read of the Wikipedia article on the different Hartz policies.
Economics_, Lib_, World_, ...
Thursday, August 10, 2006
Ben
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Hezbollah according to George
Following on from SPL's latest post, more specifically from the Galloway video, it made me remember that the EU as a whole had not designated Hezbollah a terrorist organisation.
While the US, Canada, Israel (obviously) and the Netherlands do designate Hezbollah a terrorist group, Britain and Australia make a distinction between the armedso-called External Security Organization and the political wing of Hezbollah, designating only the External Security Organization a terrorist organisation (something the government should consider regarding Hamas).
As previously stated, the EU has refused to designate Hezbollah a terrorist group. A notable additon to this is Russia's similar refusal to designate Hezbollah a terrorist organisation.
While this is all old news to a certain extent, it is something we and perhaps more importantly, the media need to be reminded of. Even if it means more shouting matches with George Galloway before we get to hear the message on 'the box'.
SPL
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Media in the Lebanon crisis
The advent of mass media, and television in particular, revolutionised the conduct of modern warfare. The Tet Offensive of 1968 portrayed this most vividly: the conflict was a military disaster for the Vietcong, but the symbolic image of enemy combatants storming US embassies deeply moved the American public and consequently marked a turning point in the Vietnam war.

With this power came a great responsibility - and difficulty - for the media to convey military conflicts in a fair and accurate manner. This came into question recently, as blogger Charles Johnson revealed that photographs of Israeli attacks on the Lebanon, taken by Adnan Hajj and purchased by Reuters, were faked.
Bias is also a big problem. An interview with George Galloway on Sky News (which you can see below) was notable for two things in particular. First, how contemptible this man is, and the extent to which he willingly employs the ad hominem fallacy to further his ends, when in fact his remarks reduce the force of his argument (he calls the interviewer a "silly woman"). Second, it's notable that Mr Galloway actually has quite a good - and important - point. The mainstream media in general clearly has an abject bias in favour of Israel. 30 times more Lebanese civilians have been killed than Israeli civilians, but this fact isn't immediately obvious when absorbing media reports.
I'm currently reading Understanding Power by Noam Chomsky, and so am probably more susceptible to allegations of institutional bias within the mass media - what Chomsky calls the "propaganda model". Nevertheless, the issue is very interesting. There's a pertinent, if one-sided, documentary called Peace, Propaganda & The Promised Land available on the internet, which you can see here.
Wednesday, August 09, 2006
SPL
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The domestic implications of the Lebanon crisis
The newspapers have, rightly, been dominated by the crisis in Lebanon over the past month. I don't feel sufficiently qualified about the situation in that region to talk at length about it, but what I want to do instead is briefly put forward a theory of how the crisis will affect British politics. I argued on 27th June that "There's even a possibility that Blair might enjoy a period of relative resurgence over the summer months". I referred back to last summer, when a brief lull in Blair's opinion ratings was quickly turned around as he played statesman for London's Olympic bid, at the G8, and after the bombings in London. A similar situation may arise here. The British people, I think, love a statesman - remember Thatcher's party election broadcast, which depicted her touring the world, shaking hands with a multitude of leaders? Making deals with world leaders - even while on holiday - conveys this statesman-like aurora well, as conveyed by interviews in the cabinet room (see here) and, however much we don't like it on the surface, press conferences with George Bush.  According to an ICM/Guardian poll, 63% of Britons say the PM has tied Britain too close to White House. A similar figure, according to the Telegraph, thinks that Israel's response is "disproportionate". But in a sense this doesn't matter. The majority of Britons will, like me, feel insufficiently qualified to make bold judgements about the current conflict. They will see horrific images on their television sets, and naturally respond to such questions as "Do you think Israel is doing everything it can to avoid civilian casualties in Lebanon?" in the negative. But a single polling question - phrased, I might add, unfairly (can anyone do "everything"?) - is different from Britons' general view, which is probably one of horror and confusion. When much of politics is symbolism, the image of Blair the statesman moralising and making assertions on the Lebanon crisis is bound to play favourably to the British public. It is a pity that the G8 summit in a temporarily-transformed St Petersburg passed unnoticed, except for a boon for Putin; nevertheless, the current crisis in the Lebanon is likely to bolster this position in the run-up to Labour's difficult autumn conference, although the generally accepted departure date of summer/autumn next year is unlikely to shift.
Wednesday, August 02, 2006
Ben
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The Case Against Israel
With the Qana bombings described as war crimes by Human Rights Watch and some activists already trying to get Israel referred to the International Court, I thought I'd use the Rome Statute to see how much of Israel's actions could be referred to the International Court as war crimes. 1)"Intentionally directing attacks against civilian objects, that is, objects which are not military objectives." Israel's initial air strikes which destroyed bridges, roads (including the main road to Damascus) and airports could fall under this as there seemed to be no military reason for their destruction, this supported by Israel's chief of staff, Lt. Gen. Dan Halutz, who uttered the famous soundbite "we will turn Lebanon's clock back 20 years". 2) "Intentionally launching an attack in the knowledge that such attack will cause incidental loss of life or injury to civilians or damage to civilian objects or widespread, long-term and severe damage to the natural environment which would be clearly excessive in relation to the concrete and direct overall military advantage anticipated." While Israel claims it has tried to minimise civilian 'collatoral damage', the Guardian yesterday quoted the number of Lebanese civilian deaths at 515, Lebanese military deaths at 21 and Hizbullah deaths at 38. If Israel are targetting Hizbullah they don't seem to be very accurate. Even if Israel's air strikes in general do not fall foul, there is growing consensus that yesterday's attack on the village of Qana does. As the BBC reported: "The Israeli air strike on the southern Lebanese village of Qana in the early hours of Sunday killed at least 54 Lebanese civilians, mostly children"; and, " The UN's emergency relief co-ordinator was highly critical of Israel's strike in Qana, calling it "indiscriminate and excessive".
3) "Employing weapons, projectiles and material and methods of warfare which are of a nature to cause superfluous injury or unnecessary suffering or which are inherently indiscriminate in violation of the international law of armed conflict." There have been reports of Israel using white phosphorous bombs in Lebanon, violating international law. 4) "Intentionally directing attacks against personnel, installations, material, units or vehicles involved in a humanitarian assistance or peacekeeping mission in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations, as long as they are entitled to the protection given to civilians or civilian objects under the international law of armed conflict." The bombing of a UN outpost caused much outcry, Kofi Annan innitially calling the attack "apparently" deliberate.
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