SPL : Brown as leader a recipe for defeat
These figures can only get worse for Brown, a politician who has been necessarily tarnished by Labour's (nearly) ten years in office - with the voters naturally neglecting to recall his largely commendable record as chancellor. 70% of voters agree with the statement that it is "time for change", and Brown would find it difficult, if not impossible, to renew himself and his party while in office. That's why this author thinks that Alan Johnson is a far more credible candidate for the leadership. The average voter won't associate him with the Blair era as they would with Brown, and he's sufficiently obscure for most people to be seen as a "fresh face". (Skipper reasons further on the merits of Johnson here and here.)
Diane Abbot on This Week said that anyone who doubted that Brown would be the next PM didn't understand Labour's electoral college. But surely, as this poll and many others have suggested, anyone who thinks that Brown will remain as PM for very long doesn't understand the rigours of psephology.
N.B. Intriguingly, demographic partisan alignment has been reversed by Brown and Cameron. According to the Guardian: "Support for Mr Cameron is stronger among women and some younger voters on this issue, reflecting an apparent trend across the poll for Mr Brown's greater appeal to older men."Brown_, Cameron_, SPL_, The Parties_, ...
Discussion and Debate on Westminster, British Politics, Economics and
Current Affairs
2 Comments:
The thing of it is: Brown is not PM. When - if - he becomes PM things could - just could - change. Brown's public standing is obviously suffering because of the succession crisis; that, of course, is the Blairite strategy: to weaken Brown sufficiently to allow a stop-Brown candidate (Johnson, perhaps) to snatch the prize. Once the succession crisis is over, and the new Leader is installed (whoever it is, and I still think the most likely thing is that it will be Brown) then Cameron may no longer enjoy the free ride he has been gifted by Labour's travails over the last months. A lot will depend on what Brown actually does as PM; how quickly he moves to put his own mark on the premiership, and how quickly he can distance himself from Blair's deadly legacy of foreign adventurism. It's a long way to the next election. The fat lady hasn't sung yet. But it would help things if Blair would "Exit, right stage" as swiftly as possible.
It is indeed a long time until the next election, and I agree that Brown has the capacity to turn the polls around. But this would require adept manipulation of Fleet St - something which Brown distinctly lacks and Cameron certainly has. The odds are, I believe, stacked against Brown.
Post a Comment
Links to this post:
Create a Link
<< Home