The newspapers have, rightly, been dominated by the crisis in Lebanon over the past month. I don't feel sufficiently qualified about the situation in that region to talk at length about it, but what I want to do instead is briefly put forward a theory of how the crisis will affect British politics.

I argued on 27th June that "There's even a possibility that Blair might enjoy a period of relative resurgence over the summer months". I referred back to last summer, when a brief lull in Blair's opinion ratings was quickly turned around as he played statesman for London's Olympic bid, at the G8, and after the bombings in London.

A similar situation may arise here. The British people, I think, love a statesman - remember Thatcher's party election broadcast, which depicted her touring the world, shaking hands with a multitude of leaders? Making deals with world leaders - even while on holiday - conveys this statesman-like aurora well, as conveyed by interviews in the cabinet room (see here) and, however much we don't like it on the surface, press conferences with George Bush.

According to an ICM/Guardian poll, 63% of Britons say the PM has tied Britain too close to White House. A similar figure, according to the Telegraph, thinks that Israel's response is "disproportionate". But in a sense this doesn't matter. The majority of Britons will, like me, feel insufficiently qualified to make bold judgements about the current conflict. They will see horrific images on their television sets, and naturally respond to such questions as "Do you think Israel is doing everything it can to avoid civilian casualties in Lebanon?" in the negative. But a single polling question - phrased, I might add, unfairly (can anyone do "everything"?) - is different from Britons' general view, which is probably one of horror and confusion.

When much of politics is symbolism, the image of Blair the statesman moralising and making assertions on the Lebanon crisis is bound to play favourably to the British public. It is a pity that the G8 summit in a temporarily-transformed St Petersburg passed unnoticed, except for a boon for Putin; nevertheless, the current crisis in the Lebanon is likely to bolster this position in the run-up to Labour's difficult autumn conference, although the generally accepted departure date of summer/autumn next year is unlikely to shift.